The one million vehicle projection is based on global EV sales of 3.2 million units in 2020, up 43 per cent from 2019, and 30,000 units in Thailand, up 13 per cent, says Krungthai COMPASS Research Centre.
The rise is being driven by government policies worldwide to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and support EV manufacturers and consumers, it added. Meanwhile, leading auto manufacturers are moving into the EV market to meet rising consumer demand. As a result, Compass estimates global EV use will reach 25-45 million units by 2030 from the current 10 million.
The projection is good news for Thai policymakers, who are aiming to leverage Thailand’s existing auto industry to become an EV manufacturing hub for the region.
The EV trend in Thailand is still low when compared to many other countries, with EVs accounting for just 1 per cent (190,000 units) of vehicles on Thai roads last year.
However, Thailand-based Japanese automakers are now focusing on the hybrid EV market.
Domestic production of hybrids should fuel growth of 24 per cent per year, driving Thai EV usage to 1 million units by 2028, Compass said.
Being a hybrid electric vehicle production base will also help maintain the domestic ICE vehicle market and related supply chains in the medium term, the research house added. It would have a positive effect on electric battery manufacturers, electronic components manufacturers and manufacturers of lightweight and strong materials as well.
However, Compass warned the surging proportion of zero-emission vehicles will have a direct impact on auto-parts manufacturers, especially powertrain and engine makers – a market worth nearly 300 billion baht, or about 20 per cent of the auto-parts sector.